Centre for the Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics
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The future of algal blooms in lakes globally is in our hands
Get PDFLakes are fundamental to society and nature, yet they are currently exposed to excessive nutrients and climate change, resulting in algal blooms. In the future, this may change, but how and where still needs more scientific attention. Here, we explore future trends in algal blooms in lakes globally for >3,500 ‘representative lakes’ for the year 2050, considering the attribution of both nutrient and climate factors. We soft-coupled a process-based lake ecosystem model (PCLake+) with a watershed nutrient model (MARINA-Multi) to assess trends in algal blooms in terms of the Trophic State Index for chlorophyll-a (TSI-Chla). Globally between 2010 and 2050, we show a rising trend in algal blooms under fossil-fuelled development (TSI-Chla increase in 91% of lakes) and a declining trend under sustainable development (TSI-Chla decrease in 63% of lakes). These changes are significantly attributed to nutrients. While not always significant, climate change attributions point to being unfavourable for lakes in 2050, exacerbating lake water quality. Our study stresses prioritising responsible nutrient and climate management on policy agendas. This implies that the future of algal blooms in lakes is in our hands
Advancing operational flood forecasting, early warning and risk management with new emerging science: gaps, opportunities and barriers in Kenya
Get PDFKenya and the wider East African region suffer from significant flood risk, as illustrated by major losses of lives, livelihoods and assets in the most recent years. This is likely to increase in future as exposure rises and rainfall intensifies under climate change. Accordingly, flood risk management is a priority action area in Kenya's national climate change adaptation planning. Here, we outline the opportunities and challenges to improve end-to-end flood early warning systems, considering the scientific, technical and institutional/governance dimensions. We demonstrate improvements in rainfall forecasts, river flow, inundation and baseline flood risk information. Notably, East Africa is a ‘sweetspot’ for rainfall predictability at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales for extending forecast lead times beyond a few days and for ensemble flood forecasting. Further, we demonstrate coupled ensemble flow forecasting, new flood inundation simulation, vulnerability and exposure data to support Impact based Forecasting (IbF). We illustrate these advances in the case of fluvial and urban flooding and reflect on the potential for improved flood preparedness action. However, we note that, unlike for drought, there remains no national flood risk management framework in Kenya and there is need to enhance institutional capacities and arrangements to take full advantage of these scientific advances
Status assessment of non-native terrestrial species in Antarctica
Get PDFAntarctica has been subject to direct human activity for a little over 200 years. In recent decades, the combination of sharp increases in human activity and regional climate change, particularly around the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Arc, have placed the terrestrial and freshwater environment under increased threat of non-native species introduction and establishment. Policymakers, including those on the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting’s Committee for Environmental Protection, need accurate and up-to-date information on the presence and status of non-native species within Antarctica upon which to base their decision-making. Here we collate available information to consider the status of known non-native species in the terrestrial Antarctic, and how this has changed in the past decade. Of known establishments, we found 46% to have been deliberately introduced during historical transplant experiments and subsequently removed, 36% were non-experimental introductions, and 18% only survive(d) synanthropically (i.e., associated with Antarctic facilities). All non-native species currently established in the natural Antarctic environment are located in either the Antarctic Peninsula, South Shetland Islands or South Orkney Islands (i.e., the maritime Antarctic region, with none in the continental Antarctic), with invertebrate species dominating. Most of the currently established non-native species have now been present for more than a decade, though the more recent appearance of non-native flies in station sewage treatment plants and their expansion into the Antarctic environment is a major cause for concern. While there has been some success in eradicating introduced plants, management of introduced invertebrates in the natural environment has largely not been attempted. Considerable scope exists for the Antarctic Treaty Parties to better coordinate non-native species management across the invasion continuum
Model seasonal and proxy spatial biases revealed by assimilated mid-Holocene seasonal temperatures
No full textCOSMOS-UK. Soil moisture: March 2025
Get PDFThe COSMOS-UK soil moisture status report provides an insight into the current soil moisture conditions across the UK as monitored by the COSMOS-UK network. The network comprises approximately 50 sites at which a cosmic ray neutron sensor is deployed to monitor soil moisture within a footprint of about 12 hectares. The report is comprised of: maps of end of month soil moisture both as volumetric water content and as a soil moisture index; a short description of current status; and selected time series graphs showing data from the last three years
Distribution, trends, and drivers of flash droughts in the United Kingdom
Get PDFFlash droughts have been the subject of a great deal of scientific attention in the last decade, but the greatest emphasis has been on relatively dry climates. Here, we characterise this type of rapid-onset drought events in a more humid setting, the United Kingdom (UK), for the period 1969–2021. Our results show that flash droughts have affected both the wetter regions of the north-west and the drier regions of the south-east in every season over the last 5 decades. Nevertheless, the spatio-temporal distribution of flash droughts is highly variable in the UK, with important regional and seasonal contrasts. Central and northern regions are generally the most frequently affected by flash droughts in comparison to the south-eastern region. Overall, there are non-significant trends in the frequency of flash droughts in winter, summer, and autumn. However, we found a significant increase in the number of flash droughts recorded in spring. We also analysed the relative contribution of the atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) and precipitation to flash drought development in the UK. Our findings show that flash drought occurrence responds primarily to precipitation variability in all seasons but particularly in winter and autumn. In spring and summer, the AED is important as a secondary driver for triggering flash droughts, especially in the drier regions of the south-east. Furthermore, the trends observed in AED contribution evidence that its relevance is rising significantly in spring, also in the south-eastern UK in summer. The atmospheric and oceanic conditions related to flash drought development were also examined. Remarkable anomalies in sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height associated with the presence of high-pressure systems are noted in all seasons during the development of the main flash droughts affecting the UK. Similarly, flash droughts typically develop under the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter and autumn, while in summer and spring the positive phase is dominant. We also found positive anomalies in sea surface temperature during the development of flash droughts in spring and summer, while mixed anomalies are observed in winter and autumn. This study presents a detailed characterisation of the flash drought phenomenon in the UK, providing useful information for drought assessment and management and a climatology of flash droughts that can be used as a baseline against which future changes in flash drought occurrence can be assessed
A polar oceans shipping information system
No full textGlobally, ships above a certain tonnage, as well as an increasing number of smaller vessels, rely on
the AIS (Automatic Identification System) to safely navigate around other vessels, which are typically
the only dynamically moving surface obstacles in most oceans. In the polar seas however, there are
additional challenges due to the dynamic nature of icebergs and sea ice. While satellite technology
has improved spatiotemporal coverage and sophistication, local observation remains invaluable for
navigating ice infested waters. An analogous system to AIS, tailored for the polar oceans, could
enhance safety by providing additional knowledge of the ice a ship is sailing through. This system
could function as a distributed communication network, which integrates data on key environmental
parameters collected from all vessels operating in polar regions which then can be used with remote
sensing products to improve situational awareness for all maritime traffic. We propose that an
international initiative to develop such a system could be pursued through a collaborative research
program utilizing national polar research vessels
Surveying the deep: A review of computer vision in the benthos
Get PDFThe analysis of image data for benthic biodiversity monitoring is now commonplace within the domain of marine ecology. Whilst advances in imaging technologies have allowed for the collection of vast quantities of data, the curation of this has traditionally been performed manually, resulting in a bottleneck whereby data is collected faster than it can be processed. Recent years have seen marine ecologists turn to the domain of computer vision to help automate this curation process. However, as the knowledge required to build such systems spans both domains, there is a high barrier to entry. To help reduce this barrier, this paper aims to provide an introduction to computer vision-based benthic biodiversity monitoring via a comprehensive literature review. To aid ecologists, key computer vision concepts are described and example use-cases highlighted. The major challenges inherent to benthic imagery for computer vision systems are explored, alongside a discussion of how current systems attempt to mitigate against these. To aid computer scientists wishing to enter the domain, an exploration of currently available open-source benthic datasets is also provided. Recommendations for future research are explored, including a move towards human-centric techniques, committing to ablation studies, reaching community agreement on open-source benchmarking datasets, and an increased use of innovative methods to allow for improved answering of key benthic ecology questions
UK hydrological outlook - February 2025
The Hydrological Outlook provides an insight into future hydrological conditions across the UK. Specifically, it describes likely trajectories for river flows and groundwater levels on a monthly basis, with a particular focus on the next three months.
Well established monitoring programmes provide the current status of both river flows and groundwater levels at many sites across the UK, and data from these programmes provide the starting point for the Outlook. A number of techniques are used to project forwards from the current state and results from these are used to produce a summary that includes a highlights map
Improving the reproducibility in geoscientific papers: lessons learned from a Hackathon in climate science
In this paper, we explore the crucial role and challenges of computational reproducibility in geosciences, drawing insights from the Climate Informatics Reproducibility Challenge (CICR) in 2023. The competition aimed at (1) identifying common hurdles to reproduce computational climate science; and (2) creating interactive reproducible publications for selected papers of the Environmental Data Science journal. Based on lessons learned from the challenge, we emphasize the significance of open research practices, mentorship, transparency guidelines, as well as the use of technologies such as executable research objects for the reproduction of geoscientific published research. We propose a supportive framework of tools and infrastructure for evaluating reproducibility in geoscientific publications, with a case study for the climate informatics community. While the recommendations focus on future CIRCs, we expect they would be beneficial for wider umbrella of reproducibility initiatives in geosciences
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